How many generations ?
In June, I wrote about a popular Tamil saying - "No family ever remains very rich or very poor for more than three generations". I believe that this is quite true of countries as well. Most countries in the course of their history have gone through cycles of alternating affluence and poverty. India and most of the other ancient civilizations (Pakistan, Iran, Iraq, Egypt, China) are in varying stages of relative poverty now - Of course this was not the case a few hundred years ago !
In most countries/civilizations, the start phase is one in which the country is in a stage of poverty and hunger - The country then works its damnedest to pull itself up to a position of affluence by dint of sheer hard work and persistence.
The second generation in this country has grown up in affluence and money is no longer the prime driving force. Power and significance in world politics becomes more important and the country goes through a phase where development is driven by the desire to create things more for the grandioseness anand prestige of the achievement, rather than for the utility.
Money and power hold no attraction for the next generation, which seeks to find the truths of the world in art, beauty and abstract thought. Although this generation creates some beautiful monuments, it is inevitably the start of the decline because the population by and large has lost its hunger and desire for success.
An example of the three generations in Mughal India:
I. Babur-Humayun
II. Akbar-Jahangir
III. Shah Jahan
The US has bucked this trend to the large extent and has seen a steady increase in prosperity and importance for the last 250 years or so. I puzzled over what the secret behind this was .... Especially because it is not often that these Tamil proverbs turn out to be proven wrong.
I think I have figured out the reason .... Its immigration !
The influx of immigrants has artificially introduced a first generation (hungry, poor, desperate for success) from time to time. So while a good deal of the population moved from being money seeking to power and art seeking, there was always a group of people being imported that brought the necessary spark to keep the economy growing.
Things have changed in the last few years, with immigration becoming increasingly restricted to qualified, well educated folks, who are likely to have had an affluent childhood, which means they would be Generation II's rather than the Generation I's. (The only exception being illegal immigrants from Mexico/Cuba).
If the US becomes more closed, the population will quickly become full of Generation III's and will self-destruct - Too many philosophers, not enough blacksmiths :-)
In most countries/civilizations, the start phase is one in which the country is in a stage of poverty and hunger - The country then works its damnedest to pull itself up to a position of affluence by dint of sheer hard work and persistence.
The second generation in this country has grown up in affluence and money is no longer the prime driving force. Power and significance in world politics becomes more important and the country goes through a phase where development is driven by the desire to create things more for the grandioseness anand prestige of the achievement, rather than for the utility.
Money and power hold no attraction for the next generation, which seeks to find the truths of the world in art, beauty and abstract thought. Although this generation creates some beautiful monuments, it is inevitably the start of the decline because the population by and large has lost its hunger and desire for success.
An example of the three generations in Mughal India:
I. Babur-Humayun
II. Akbar-Jahangir
III. Shah Jahan
The US has bucked this trend to the large extent and has seen a steady increase in prosperity and importance for the last 250 years or so. I puzzled over what the secret behind this was .... Especially because it is not often that these Tamil proverbs turn out to be proven wrong.
I think I have figured out the reason .... Its immigration !
The influx of immigrants has artificially introduced a first generation (hungry, poor, desperate for success) from time to time. So while a good deal of the population moved from being money seeking to power and art seeking, there was always a group of people being imported that brought the necessary spark to keep the economy growing.
Things have changed in the last few years, with immigration becoming increasingly restricted to qualified, well educated folks, who are likely to have had an affluent childhood, which means they would be Generation II's rather than the Generation I's. (The only exception being illegal immigrants from Mexico/Cuba).
If the US becomes more closed, the population will quickly become full of Generation III's and will self-destruct - Too many philosophers, not enough blacksmiths :-)
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